It was eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
